Six straight times, earnings season provided the definitive antidote to the stock market’s ills. That perfect record is about to get its biggest test yet at a time when uncertainty is swirling among equity investors.
Stakes are rising. Down almost 5% in September, the S&P 500 just had its worst month since the coronavirus landed. Quarterly guidance, which improved in the runup to the past four reporting periods, is now deteriorating. Analysts’ conviction in forecasts is hardening, potentially limiting upside surprises, with dispersion among high and low estimates suddenly narrowing from a decade-long high.
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